MySpace Moves, Facebook Surprises

Turn and Face the Strain

"Baby, I was never cool enough to get a job at a record store; but if I had, I
wouldn't want you anymore." - The Refreshments

We knew MySpace needed a new CEO. Small surprise, they picked the guy from Facebook who brought in all that dough from Microsoft. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/25/technology/companies/25myspace.html?_r=1&ref=technology.

Does this mean MySpace now starts to try to look and feel more like Facebook? And if so, which version of Facebook? The one that created all the buzz, flying to 200 members and gaining working professionals who are almost as likely to purchase a music store as they are digital music? Or the one that wants to be Twitter and that has initiated a large degree of denial and resistance among the faithful?

Swiftly, now, those "social media strategists" whose big idea is, "make a Facebook page for your business" can now turn their brains back on. This industry is nascent. Product quality across the board is poor. We are not anywhere close to having any sort of standardization. The lead dog will change. Cultures and demographics will continue to change. A stupendous amount of money has been invested by extremely large players in companies that can't, despite massive popularity and ubiquitous media exposure, settle on a revenue model that brings them to break even against their soaring infrastructure costs. Mildly problematic (he asked facetiously)?

Everything about the social media industry will change and change again. If you're telling your clients you have, "the answer," you'd best follow up immediately with, "for the moment." Letting your clients in on the fact that things are changing isn't good enough. To formulate strategies that position them--and you--to ride atop the crest of the change curve, you must be ready for the changes that haven't happened yet.


Look Out, You Rock and Rollers

One more chance, I'll try this time
I'll give you yours, I won't take mine
I'll listen up, pretend to care
Go on ahead, I'll meet you there - Blink 182

Why did Facebook accept the terms of service its users wrote despite the fact that turnout for the vote was so low? http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/techchron/detail?blogid=19&entry_id=38986 Lots of reasons. Here are some:

1. Good business move. Worst thing you can do is alienate your customers.
2. Though turnout was low, margin was disparate. 74 percent of the vote? Obama didn't even get that.
3. A gift for the Facebook PR department, and an act consistent with Facebook's culture.
4. The only justification they had for going with the rules they drew up would be that their self-defined threshhold of 30 percent
   http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/facebooks_site_governance_vote_a_massive_con.php wasn't reached. Imagine the uproar.

Okay, let's talk about these numbers. "In most online communities," writes usability guru Jakob Nielsen, "90 percent of users never contribute, nine percent...contribute a little and one percent of users account for almost all of the action. (http://www.useit.com/alertbox/participation_inequality.html)"

Quick math that explains a few things:

• If Facebook charged $1 per YEAR for a subscription, and it has 200 million users, that equates to a gross revenue bump of $200 million per year, right? Wrong. It's at best ten percent of 200 million, as a few users will quit due to (completely misplaced) outrage (that demonstrates our lack of ability to separate "entitlement" and "utility" from "business" and "luxury item." But I digress...) and the vast majority of the passive 90 percent would choose to forego the experience entirely if they had to maintain a subscription at any cost. What makes Facebook attractive to investors? 400 million eyeballs.
• It's safe to assume Facebook picked 30 percent--60 million--because they knew they were safe. Now they've done us all a favor. They've given the people what they want. They'll play their hits, not just the album cuts they're trying to promote. And maybe we'll cut them some slack about the new look and feel...
• The turnout was three tenths of one percent. Not even Nielsen's activist one percent turned out. This is a troubling item for Facebook's leadership.

They're Quite Aware of What They're Going Through

So, Facebook regains some legitimacy, acts like a partner instead of a distant corporation and prepares to do battle with one of its own. This is a fun ride, y'all. Keep kickin'.